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Jun 7
Dissecting the Hillary Clinton Campaign Loss

Hillary6Now that the 24-hr news monster has lost its favorite story (WHEN WILL HILLARY DROP OUT?) it has a new favorite. What went wrong with the Hillary Clinton primary campaign?

I've listened to and read quite a few accounts, and not surprisingly, my favorite is on NPR.

The story is more than eight minutes long, and gives a really detailed look at how some of Clinton's missteps and gaffes hurt her. It also gives some detail on how Bill Clinton might have hurt his wife's campaign.

The feminist world also is in a huge debate as to what happened, and who is to blame. Some claim misogyny, even going so far as to blame Sex and the City for our country's view of women. I don't buy the Sex and the City link, but I do agree that we have a lot of work to do in our country. Here is Judith Warner's New York Times blog post on the subject.

Please note, the post's title's entire premise was that Hillary was the woman in charge and that the women in the Sex and the City movie were whores. Note to Judith: Maybe you should watch the movie before writing about it. It's more about fidelity and being true to oneself than you might think.

And last but not least, there is analysis from my hometown rag, the Des Moines Register, as to what went wrong for Hillary in the Iowa Caucuses.

In my humble opinion, Hillary got off to a very rocky start but entrusting her future to Tom Vilsack. While he had some fabulous people working for him, like Teresa Vilmain and JoDee Winterhof, his own political brand had just received a severe spanking after his failed presidential bid, and he was in no position to effectively launch Hillary's campaign. He got a lot out of the deal. She erased his campaign debt and lent him some credibility, but she got nothing from the deal. Here is the Register's account of the Iowa Caucus timeline for Hillary's campaign:

HILLARY CLINTON IN IOWA

As the New York senator prepares to formally exit the race Saturday, top Iowa backers said Clinton would have captured the Democratic nomination had she won the caucuses on Jan. 3. Barack Obama, the presumptive nominee, won as Clinton finished third.
Below is a list of key dates in Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign in Iowa.

DECEMBER 2006: Clinton begins making calls to potential Iowa backers, gauging support for a presidential bid, and begins making plans for a January campaign announcement.

JAN. 20, 2007: Clinton announces plans to form a presidential campaign exploratory committee and begins preparing for her first campaign trip a week later.

JAN. 26-28, 2007: Clinton makes her maiden campaign (Note, I realize this is the wrong usage of this word, but it's what they wrote!) trip to Iowa, attending a dinner in Des Moines and headlining a rally at East High School before an audience of more than 2,000. Clinton later attended a reception in Cedar Rapids and headlined events in Davenport.

MAY 23, 2007: A memo by deputy national campaign manager Mike Henry, in which he suggests Clinton skip campaigning in Iowa to focus on other states, is leaked to the media. Clinton tamps down rumors with a round of Iowa press calls, committing to competing in the caucuses.

JUNE 5, 2007: Clinton replaces Iowa campaign director JoDee Winterhof with veteran Iowa organizer Teresa Vilmain.

JULY 2-4, 2007: Clinton campaigns with husband Bill Clinton in Iowa for the first time, marking the former president's first steps on the 2008 campaign trail with his wife. The pair headline rallies in Des Moines, Iowa City and Davenport before drawing thousands to a Clear Lake parade on July 4.

OCT. 7, 2007: The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll shows Clinton leading for the first time among her rivals, with support from 29 percent of likely caucusgoers, ahead of John Edwards and Barack Obama.

JAN. 3, 2008: Clinton finishes third in the caucuses with support from 29 percent. Obama gets 38 percent and Edwards receives 30 percent.

Regardless of what you think of Hillary Clinton, her strong showing and tenacity in this race proves that she is still a woman to be reckoned with in democratic politics. I look forward to her speech today. I guarantee that it will be just like her...strong, clear and visionary.


4 Comments/Trackbacks




Hillary lost Iowa because our system forces candidates into unscripted encounters with real people.

Most people, in both parties, recoil from contact with Hillary Clinton.

I am saddened as a Republican that the Dems have moved beyond Hillary but heartened as a patriotic American.

Ted, I'm sure you've never met Hillary. Yet, you repeat the same old tired conservative talk show lines. Your theory has holes in it.

You might still be lucky enough to have Hillary as your vice president. Wouldn't that be special? :~)

If Hillary really counted on Vilsack to give her a boost in Iowa, that was a huge mistake. If nothing else, his inability to gather any traction as a prez contender in his own state should have been a clear indication of that. When he was governor, I heard more than once some version of this: "I'm glad we have a Democratic governor. I just wish it was someone else."

Claire:

Excellent piece! Most likely her problems were strategic at the outset. Early on there did not appear any real strong competition and they got lulled to sleep. She, reasonably, started and campaigned as a front runner and never hit a competitve stride until it was too late. Her performance in the last few months substantiates that with a better start she likely would have won.

Sporie's analysis is surprising for one supposedly steeped in political thought. It would seem that Hillary did better in unrehearsed venues. I also fear that his seeming preference for running against Hillary is misguided. She would have been a much more formidable opponent for McCain than I fear Obama will. Hopefully with her help, Obama will rule the day.

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